Welcome back to the BettingPros PGA Show. Pat has returned after some time off and a fill-in by Seth Woolcock last week. Today, we’re giving you a full betting preview of the Arnold Palmer Invitational including our Hard Rock Best Bets, plus a few bonus picks for the Puerto Rico Open.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview
The Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill in Orlando, Florida. It’s a Par 72 measuring 7,466 yards with water in play on nine holes, thick and chewy rough, numerous bunkers, and massive, fast Bermuda greens. The Par 3s average about 226 yards with the shortest at 199 yards, and five Par 4s stretch 458 yards or longer. This is a demanding, long golf course that requires precision and power.
Forecasts call for mid-80s temperatures and winds in the 10-15 mph range, with dry conditions expected throughout the week. That likely means firm turf and extremely quick greens.
Bay Hill demands complete, high-level play. Driving distance is an advantage, but accuracy is critical because missing the fairway almost guarantees bogey or worse in the thick rough. Strong long-iron play from 200+ yards is essential. Players must also recover effectively when out of position and handle massive, undulating Bermuda greens where lag putting and three-putt avoidance can be crucial.
This is one of the more predictive courses on Tour. Certain players repeatedly contend here. Scottie Scheffler has two wins at Bay Hill and consistently gains significant strokes per round at this venue. Rory McIlroy also has an excellent track record with multiple Top 5 finishes. Russell Henley returns as the defending champion after finishing 11-under last year. Kurt Kitayama beat out Rory to win here in 2023.
Scheffler enters as the betting favorite, but questions remain about his iron play relative to his usual elite standard. McIlroy’s distance and long-iron strength give him a clear edge on a course of this length, especially in breezy Florida conditions. Hideki Matsuyama’s iron play and around-the-green ability fit perfectly if his driver cooperates. Henley’s Bermuda putting and composure in contention once again make him a serious factor.
Further down the board, Kitayama profiles extremely well on long, windy tracks that demand 200+ yard approach shots. Viktor Hovland’s long-iron game suits Bay Hill, while Chris Gotterup’s power gives him upside, though driving accuracy is a concern. Justin Thomas makes his 2026 debut and fits this course if his ball-striking is sharp immediately. Pierceson Coody and Ryan Fox offer long-shot upside with their distance and long-iron strengths.
Corey Conners is intriguing given his Bay Hill track record and stronger Bermuda splits, though recent form is inconsistent. Sungjae Im returns from injury but has been remarkably consistent at Bay Hill in past years.
Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week
Now it’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week
I’m on Russell Henley Outright (+3000).
Henley is an automatic bet for me on Bermuda greens. His putting splits on Bermuda are consistently strong, and Bay Hill’s fast surfaces clearly suit him. He is the defending champion, finished fourth here two years ago, and ranks inside the Top 30 this season in both scrambling and strokes gained on approach. Henley’s ability to stay composed in contention and close out events further strengthens my case. On a course that demands precision, recovery, and putting on Bermuda, Henley checks every box.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks:
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Russell Henley (30-1)
- Nicolai Højgaard (63-1)
- Sungjae Im (120-1)
- Sungjae Im Top 5 (15.5-1)
- Corey Conners Top 10 (+455)
- Parlay: Rory McIlroy Top 5 + Corey Conners Top 10 (16-1)
Bo McBrayer’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week
Matsuyama’s elite iron play and short-game skill make him a perfect fit for Bay Hill’s demanding setup. If his driver is even slightly improved, he has the complete profile needed to win on a tough golf course. Matsuyama has proven he can dominate strong fields on difficult tracks, and his ability to gain strokes around the green and from distance is critical at Bay Hill. At 30-1 in a Signature Event field, the combination of talent, course fit, and upside makes him my preferred play.
Bo McBrayer’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks:
- Hard Rock Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama (30-1)
- Rory McIlroy (+960)
- Kurt Kitayama (+4400)
- Justin Thomas (50-1)
- Pierceson Coody (58-1)
- Ryan Fox (120-1)
Puerto Rico Open Picks
While the spotlight is on Bay Hill, the Puerto Rico Open offers opportunity in a weaker field where distance and birdie-making upside carry significant weight.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Puerto Rico Open Leans
- Matti Schmid (50-1)
- Blades Brown (100-1)
Matti Schmid has finished Top 10 in Puerto Rico each of the last two years and is coming off a Top 10 at the Cognizant Classic, showing good form heading into another favorable setup. Blades Brown brings clear upside in a softer field at triple-digit odds, making him an appealing high-variance play where raw talent can separate.
Bo McBrayer’s Puerto Rico Open Leans
- Haotong Li (25-1)
- David Ford (45-1)
- Isaiah Salinda (125-1)
Haotong Li stands out as one of the most talented players in this field and offers a strong ceiling at 25-1. David Ford’s recent flashes and left-handed shot profile add intrigue at 45-1. Isaiah Salinda brings elite off-the-tee ability at 125-1, and on a resort-style course where driving can create scoring chances, that upside becomes particularly attractive.
That’s all for this week’s Betting Pros PGA Podcast. We hope you’ll be back next week for our betting preview of the unofficial fifth major, The Players Championship.
Until then, so long everyone.
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